TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
2/10: Brutal wind could produce bitter chills throughout. AM snowflake(?) then clearing. I’m staying inside.
EXPRESS FORECAST
Today: AM snow shower? Clearing, windy. Highs: 32-40.
Tonight: Windy and cold. Lows: Mid-to-upper teens.
Tomorrow: Breezy but sunnier. Highs: Mid-20s to near 32.
Sunday: Late snow/mix? Highs: Mid-to-upper 30s.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
From 5:00 a.m: Please prepare for biting wind chills through the day, and especially as we get into tonight. It remains cold tomorrow, with slackening winds. Otherwise, eyes turn to the potential snow event late Sunday and into Monday. This one’s still moving around a bit, so while a significant snow is possible, it’s certainly not a sure thing. Skepticism this winter seems healthy.
Today (Friday): Skies want to slowly clear after some possible morning snow showers (20-30% chance), but it will be a fight. Behind our early morning cold front, it turns very windy and cold for the day. We’re talking northwesterly winds that could gust over 45 mph. When not gusting, it’s no picnic either. Sustained levels as high as 20-30 mph are a good bet. Scarves, gloves, hats… goggles too? By afternoon, we hopefully see more sun than flurries. But most of us will be running quickly to get back indoors anyway.
Temperatures hold steady for the most part in the 30s for the day. A couple sunny spots south of town could briefly touch 40, northern areas could hover around freezing Wind chills are likely in the 20s and teens for most of the day, quickly falling off toward single digits (potentially) during evening rush hour and for the evening. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Super blustery. Skies are mostly clear which enable some temperature fall-off (quickly lowering) after sunset. Northwesterly winds gusting still toward/above 30 mph may only slowly diminish overnight. Where’s my balaclava? Low temperatures likely bottom out in the mid-to-upper teens. Wind chills around zero or in the single digits on either side are quite serious. Look outside from a warm window and you should see a mostly full moon.
Confidence: Medium-High
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| Wind chill forecast for 1 a.m. tonight. These numbers are representative of what will be seen most of the night. (Weatherbell.com) |
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…
Tomorrow (Saturday): Very cold, and still breezy, we believe. Some northwesterly gusts around 20 mph are possible. Luckily we should not have too many clouds, if that is any consolation. The sun may warm us and our homes somewhat effectively. Our air mass is still very cold, and arctic in origin. We may struggle north and west of town to get above the mid-20s, and nearer the tidal Potomac, we’ll be lucky to crack the freezing mark. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Skies may turn partly cloudy, but hopefully clear enough to see some views of Mars and Venus brightly pairing in the western sky. By just before dawn, our low temperatures should bottom out in the low 20s outside the Beltway, to perhaps upper 20s inside the Beltway. This assumes winds stay relatively calm, even if subtly shifting toward a southerly direction. Confidence: Medium
Sunday: Clouds are on the increase in the morning. By afternoon we are overcast, with maximum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s. Keep in mind the ground is cold. So as we eye precipitation approaching the region, we need to play it cautiously. Snow, or perhaps a bit of mixed precip too, could start before the Super Bowl — roughly starting between mid-afternoon and early evening (50% chance). The arrival time is uncertain though, and anything of heavier intensity wants to hold off until evening or later.
Since yesterday’s detailed update (we’ll of course have a new one today!), the situation has perhaps become muddier. Some overnight models bring the low a little further north, which complicates the forecast by introducing warmer air and less precipitation (potentially). But, there’s still a solid shot that we see snow from this system even if it takes several different tracks. Some may just cut down on how much. Confidence: Low-Medium
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| Last night’s GFS forecast the low to pass a bit north of earlier forecasts, bringing the main snow shield to the north of us. As of the time it ran, this was not the most common look for the storm across other weather models. (Weatherbell.com) |
A LOOK AHEAD
Sunday night: Periods of snow or mixed precipitation are likely. Depending on the track of the system, overnight lows either remain near freezing, or drop steadily back through the 20s. The warmer scenario is with a more northerly track, and the colder is with one where a low passes south and draws very cold air sitting just to our north into the area. Even if there are breaks in the snow and some lighter periods, skies are expected to stay cloudy, with an overall chance of precipitation around 70%. Confidence: Low-Medium
On Monday (Groundhog Day), we could still see light snow or mixed precipitation into the early morning, but we think any precipitation’s end time is roughly between then and midday. After that, it should dry out and even start clearing. Look for highs in the mid-20s to around 30. Up in Pa., we’ll wait for the groundhog to see/not see his shadow. Will he cancel the rest of winter? Confidence: Low-Medium
Behind our storm system cold air gets drawn down from Canada on northwesterly winds. Tuesday, starts cold (likely at least into the teens throughout the region) and only manages to get to mid-20s to around 30. We’ll see just how much sunshine we manage, because mostly sunny skies could be dotted with some instability clouds and flurries, periodically. Stay tuned for any small tweaks to this temperature and flurry forecast!! Confidence: Low-Medium
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
7/10 (↑): System passing through late Sunday into Monday not a certain bet for big snow, but we should see some.
Source : http://www.washingtonpost.com
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